Both offer specialty coffee

Donuts and McDonalds. Both offer specialty coffee at a lower price. Main competitors short description: Dunkin, specializes in fresh baked goods, but began offering coffee in 2005. Their level of sales is at $4.3b. Currently, their coffee sales start to exceed food sales, 5-10% of total sales are from espresso-based drinks. Dunkin has a 22.9% market share. (Starbucks in the aggregate category controls a 24.7% market share) McDonalds entered the coffeehouse industry in 2007, offering coffee at its flagship stores and opening its espresso-centric McCafe concept in some markets. McDs coffee sales generate $813m in additional annual income. Current revenue from coffee is around $490m, about 6-6.5% of Starbucks coffee sales. Their price point is at 18% discount on Starbuckss. The two competitorss targets are slightly different from Starbucks. They focus on cheaper coffee to go, whereas Starbucks is providing a premium experience for a luxury price. Consequently, they compete with each other more directly than with Starbucks, however McCafe has a negative impact on Starbucks. Analysts believe that competitors will settle into separate niches, McDonalds being the better value proposition and Starbucks offering higher quality experience. 3. Financial Performance 2007-2009 3.1. Overview of Starbucks performance 2007-2009 In the fiscal year 2007, Starbucks achieved a solid performance. All goals like new stores opening, total revenue growth, comparable store sales growth and considerable cost rises from dairy products were completed. The consolidated operating income in 2008 was $503.9 and operating margin 4.9%. This was a significant decrease compared with the past few years, the reason for decrease was a changing of structure. In 2009, Starbucks faced many challenges caused by unexpected economic environment and more intense competition, which had impact on the revenue, comparable store sales, operating income and margins. 3.2. Income statement analysis 2007-2009 While net revenues of Starbucks havent been stable from 2007 to 2009 (first increasing then decreasing), its total operating income have also been moving in 2008 it decreased by 52,2% and it was $503.9 million, 4.9% of total net revenues. The reason for decrease was high distribution costs and high rent expenses. In 2009 it increase again by $58.1. Main reason for this improvement was the restructuring charges which contain: assets impairment, lease exit and severance costs. In 2008 and 2009 while net revenues were $10,383 million and $9,774.6, total operating expenses were $9,992.7 million in 2008 and $9,334.5 in 2009 that means expenses were highly eating up more than 96% of the net revenues. The company suffered a major loss of 113.185% in net earnings between 2007 and 2008. Starbucks realized that he need to re-think its business strategy. In 2008, the company incurred restructuring charges of $266.9 million due to store closures in the US and Australia and reduction of the work force. Starbucks Company derived 84% of total net revenue from the company-operated retail stores. They opened 681 new stores in the last 12 months and this offset -3% losses in comparable store sales. Total net revenue of 2009 was showed a decrease of 5.9%, stayed at $9,774.6. The company-operated retail also went down. In detail, there was a change of nearly 6.7% in comparable, for 4% decrease in transactions and a 2% decrease in the average value per
transaction. Figure : Net Revenue of Starbucks 2007-2009 (Starbucks annual financial report) Figure : Operating Income of Starbucks 2007-2009 (Starbucks annual financial report) Figure : Net earnings of Starbucks 2007-2009 (Starbuck annual report) 3.4. Balance sheet In term of assets, the total assets for the three years kept staying around $5,600 million. The total current assets in 2009 were $2,036 million. This was higher than in 2008 and 2007 due to the high cash and cash equivalents in 2009. The marketable securities in 2007 were $157 millions so in 2007 the company had more short term investment. On the other hand, the total liabilities in 2008 were the highest in three years because of the commercial paper and short-term borrowing in 2008. Additionally, there was no short-term debt in 2009 but it was the highest accrued expenses during the three years. The shareholders equity in 2009 was the highest in three years owing to the additional paid-in capital. 3.4. Ratio analysis: By doing ratio analysis, the company performance would be evaluated more clearly. As we can see the current ratio for the 2009 was higher than 2008 and 2007. In 2008 and 2007, the current ratio was under 1. That means Starbucks was not in good financial health in these two years. However, this situation didnt exist for a long time but it was not a good sign. The current ratio for 2009 was 1.29, so the company had 1.29 times more current assets than current liabilities. That means Starbucks was able to cover its own obligations. As the Exhibit 1 shows the quick ratio was low for 3 years that is all below 1. This indicates that the company had difficult to turning their inventory into cash like a short-term liability which the company could not pay off immediately. In 2007, the profit margin of Starbucks was 7.15%. This means 7 cents of each dollar is companys profit. In the next two years, the profit margin decreased by nearly 3 percent. That means the net income in 2009 was visibly lower than 2007. It may mainly caused from the increase of the restructuring charges. The return on assets ratio in the year 2007 was 13.77% while the ratio declined to 6.95% in 2009. From this we know Starbucks earned more in 2007 and the net income in 2007 was higher than in 2009. The reason for this decrease results is also from increase cost of the restructuring and innovation in 2008 and 2009. In terms of leverage ratio, to measure its ability to meet financial obligation from 2007 to 2009 the debt ratio was around 50%. That means nearly 50% of funds for assets came from debt. This does not seem good for the company and the most liabilities were long-term liabilities. The debt to equity ratio from 2007 to 2009 was pretty high and the highest point was in 2007, so in 2007 more debt was used. Interests earned ratio in Starbucks during the 3 years was extremely high like in 2007, the ratio was nearly 28 times, but finally in 2009 the ratio was around 15 times a year. It could be a really good margin since the company was able to cover its interest expenses 15 times with operating income. 3.5. Cash flow Operating activities: the net cash provided by operating actives in 2009 was highest during the 3 years. The main part of activities was depreciation and amortization. Same as in 2008 the company spent $604.5 thousands on depreciation and amortization. Investing activities: the net cash used by investing activities in 2007 was $-1201.9 thousands. The main costs here were addition to property, plant and equipment and the company also spent money on purchasing available-for-sale securities. But in 2009 the net cash used by investing activities was $-421.1 thousands. This was much less than in the 2007. The reason for this was the company spent less money on additions to property, plant and equipment. Financing activities: the net increase/ (decrease) in cash and cash equivalents in 2009 was $330.0 thousands. That means Starbucks gained money from financing activities in 2009 while in 2008 and 2009 they had losses in financing activities. The reason for the gain of money in 2009 was the profit in short-term borrowing and nothing spent on the issuing of long-term debts. 4. Forecasting 2010-2011 In order to project the next two fiscal year performance of Starbucks, particularly to construct the pro forma income statements of 2010 and 2011, establishing the revenue (or sales) projection should be the first task of all. In the next steps, the rest items of the statement would be projected by the percent of sales method since it does provide simple, logical estimate of many important variables (Higgins, 2009). In fact, there was a visible growth of Starbucks revenue in both volume and speed during the period of time from 2000 to 2009. Especially, from 2000 to 2007, the annual company sales increased in steady pace in the range of 20% to 29%. This impressive growth of Starbucks revenue was a sophisticated proof for its great business strategies during the beginning of this decade. However, the story had some changes since 2008. At the end of this fiscal year, Starbucks finished with $10,383 million revenue, in comparison with 2007, the growth ratio was 10.3% only, the lowest rat io since 2000. Continuously, in the midst of the US economic crisis, Starbucks sales got negative growth at 5.9% after finish the fiscal year 2009, stay at $9,744 million. Figure : Starbucks Sales chart in 2000-2009 (in Millions) Obviously, the trustable estimation should be the sophisticated one, that normally came from data base statistic analyses. Specifically, with the availability of the last ten years data of Starbucks revenue, it was possible to apply most of time series forecast methods such as moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, and so on. Since each method had its own advantages and limitations, it is necessary to compare how every method would reflect the same provided data (Exhibit 4). The value of W3 (for the Weighted moving average method) and ÃÅ ½Ãƒâ€šÃ‚ ± (for the Exponential smoothing method) were decided high at 0.6 and 0.3 due to the emphasis of the closest time period in term of its impact to the next following year. As a result, the forecasts for 2010 sales were quite low though there was still a slightly growth than 2009. Among the three methods, the weighted moving average method seems to be the most appropriated one since it had the smallest value of the Mean Absolute Deviation. Basically, it proved that this method had less forecasting error than others and might be the best choice of all. To be clear, the plot chart was established base on the result of the three forecast methods in Figure X. Figure : Plot of Actual Sales and Forecast Sales for 2010 in three different models (in $ Million) Visibly, the line created from weighted moving average method was the closest one to the actual sales line. Its trend reflected almost similarly to the actual during the period of time from 2003 to 2009. That is why this method was chosen to determine the 2010 Starbucks sales instead of the two methods remaining. Objectively, $9,920.81 million may not be a number that Starbucks shareholders and investors really expect, even it showed slightly growth at 1.5% than 2009. However, in some levels, it seems to reflect quite appropriately the reality of the economic conditions as well as the Starbucks status. In spite of many positive signs of the economic recovery, Starbucks is still continuing its plan to close 800 retail stores over two year 2009 and 2010. Since the 566 stores had already released in 2009, another 244 are expecting to be cleared in fiscal year 2010. Thus, it could be hard to see a rapid growth in revenue of Starbucks at the end of fiscal year 2010. In regard to fiscal year 2011, since all of the three forecasting method above only allowed forecaster to see the result of 2010 revenue, the Linear Regression method was applied to estimate the sales in 2011. By collecting the sales data from the last three years (2007 to 2009) in quarterly, by the calculation of the regression line (Exhibit 11), the value of a ( the y intercept) and b (slope of regression line) were found. These two values were use to determine the dependent variable (y). The regression forecast of sales in equation is: y = a + bx (Exhibit 5 ). The forecast results of $10,078.21 and $10,189.41 for each year of 2010 and 2011 once again confirmed about the growth trend of Starbucks sales in the next two year. Nonetheless, base on the Starbucks plan of opening over 500 new stores in US and over sea during 2011, there should be a stronger increase in sales of Starbucks in this year. Subjectively, the authors believed that Starbucks revenue would increase no less than 15% in 2011. In other words, if the 2010 revenue was forecasted at $9,920.81 million, the same item in 2011 would be around $11,408.93 million. This result was also determined base on many positive factors that Starbucks could get benefits from such as the economic recovery in higher volume and speed, the more effective operating of Starbucks after the reorganizing process in its retail stores system as well as the objective increase in customers demand. Moreover, the volume of average transaction would be higher due to the increase in cost of goods sold and the im pact of inflation. In the Exhibit 6, all the operating performances of Starbucks from 2005 to 2009 were displayed in detail by the percent of total revenue. Base on those historical data and theirs visible trends, it was possible to anticipate logically the operating results for next two fiscal years 2010 and 2011 (Exhibit 7). According to the Exhibit 14, the net income of Starbucks stays at $466.27 and $479.18 million for each of 2010 and 2011. This may be considered as the acceptable results in regard to the challenges of the current circumstance. In fact, the forecast net income of 2010 is 19.3% higher than 2009. Since the revenue of 2010 did not rise in a strong level (only 1.5%), this impressive net income mainly came from the reducing the stores operating expenses and the sphere magnet There are a few big players to look out for when buying your magnets s for magnets fishing.Here are some of the magnets manufacturers names you should look for:

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